UNCLASSIFIED

Space Watch

2026-W40 · 28 Sep – 04 Oct 2026
Makani Lab · Space Watch
Orbital Warfare · SATCOM · SDA · PNT · Satellite Control · Missile Warning · ISR · EW
BLUF — DPRK fired a missile on 3 Oct that KCNA called a hypersonic intermediate-range strategic missile; ROK JCS said it flew over 700 km. The Space Force retired the last DSP satellites, so SBIRS alone carries GEO missile warning until Next-Gen OPIR. SDA launches 21 more PWSA transport satellites on 5 Oct. Attention item: DPRK tempo, the second hypersonic-class launch in two weeks.

Last 7 days by mission area · 303 items

Orbital Warfare 16SATCOM 24Space Domain Awareness 20PNT / Navwar 9Satellite Control 4Missile Warning 30ISR 18Electronic Warfare 4Space Enterprise 178

Rising terms · 7d vs prior

SpaceX49 (+33.8)commercial47 (+26.9)Space Force54 (+26.6)contract38 (+21)

By the numbers · 7d

Orbital launches 4 (0 PRC, 4 US, 0 failed) · max Kp 5
GPS NANUs 2 (0 unusable) · reentries 15 (10 payloads)
Conjunctions < 1 km, next 7 d: 7,783 (5229 active pairs)
Space-Track emergency-reportable CDMs 22, TIP reentries 22 (0 high-interest)

Counterspace spotlight — Yaogan / PLA ISR constellations · PRC (PLA) · Yaogan ('remote sensing') EO/SAR/ELINT triplets, Jilin-1 commercial

Why now
SpaceNews reports Yaogan-40 and Guowang launches closing September ahead of a busy PRC Q4 manifest. Launch Library logs nine Yaogan satellites launched in September.
Mentions, 30d · PACOM relevance
1 this week. Yaogan coverage spans the First Island Chain, Guam and the sea approaches the joint force must cross.
Capabilities / TTPs
  • Yaogan-40 triplets, officially for 'electromagnetic environment probing' (Launch Library)
  • Multi-satellite groups on LM-4B and LM-6A; Yaogan 53/56 put six satellites up on one launch
  • EO, SAR and ELINT families that feed PLA long-range targeting (taxonomy assessment)
Implications
  • More Yaogan revisits shorten the windows in which forces can move unobserved in the Western Pacific.
  • Each new group needs 18 SDS custody and pass products before it can inform theater counter-ISR plans.

Missile WarningMissile warning and tracking from space and ground: SBIRS and Next-Gen OPIR, res

Yonhap News (English) · via TJFSCC Daily · 2026-10-03
DPRK fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea on 3 Oct KST; ROK JCS said it flew over 700 km. KCNA called it a hypersonic intermediate-range missile drill (Yonhap).
So what: Second hypersonic-class DPRK shot in two weeks for the space layer to detect and track.
Consider: Consider reviewing how MW/MT data from the 3 Oct launch reached theater users.
PACOMMissile launches & testsHypersonic
Air & Space Forces Magazine · 2026-10-01
The last two DSP satellites went to graveyard orbit after a September USSPACECOM exercise; SBIRS carries GEO missile warning until Next-Gen OPIR (Air & Space Forces).
So what: Theater missile warning now rests on SBIRS alone until the first Next-Gen OPIR GEO reaches orbit.
Consider: Be aware the DSP retirement may change assumptions in older MW plans and checklists.
SPACECOMMissile defenseSBIRS / Next-Gen OPIR

SATCOMMilitary and commercial satellite communications: WGS, MUOS, AEHF/ESS, protected

DefenseScoop · 2026-10-02
SDA launches 21 Northrop Grumman T1 Transport Layer satellites on 5 Oct, taking PWSA to 84 in four planes (DefenseScoop); Tranche 0 is being deorbited (Inside Defense).
So what: Each new plane adds regional data-transport coverage for the theater.
Consider: Consider tracking T1TL checkout and when SDA declares an operational capability date.
SPACECOMProliferated LEOLaunchPWSA (SDA Transport/Tracking)
UNCLASSIFIED · open-source reporting only · 5 sources · built 2026-10-04 05:57 HSTSpace Watch · 2026-W40 · page 1 of 2

UNCLASSIFIED

Satellite ControlFlying the constellations: the Satellite Control Network, ground segment and ant

Air & Space Forces Magazine · 2026-09-28
Space Force and MDA reset the SCAR program as a Commercial Solutions Opening for government-owned, leased or antenna-as-a-service options to relieve the 19-antenna SCN. White papers are due 15 Oct (Air & Space Forces).
So what: SCN capacity limits how often theater-relevant satellites can be contacted and commanded.
Consider: Be aware commercial antenna leasing brings the cyber and multi-tenant risks the notice names.
SPACECOMCommercial integrationAcquisition & contractsSCN / R2C2 / ground

ISRSpace-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance: tactical ISR from spa

SpaceNews · 2026-10-01
SpaceNews reports China's ninth and tenth September launches carried Guowang and Yaogan-40 satellites ahead of a busy Q4 manifest. Launch Library logs Yaogan-40 Group 04 (three satellites) from Taiyuan on 24 Sep.
So what: More Yaogan groups add PLA revisit over U.S. and allied forces in the Western Pacific.
Consider: Consider asking 18 SDS for custody and overflight data on the new Yaogan-40 group.
PACOMLaunchProliferated LEOYaogan / PLA ISR constellations

Space EnterpriseThe service and the enterprise behind the mission areas: force design and organi

DefenseScoop · 2026-09-30
The President nominated Lt. Gen. David Miller Jr., the DCSO for strategy, plans, programs and requirements and a former SpOC commander, to lead USSPACECOM and succeed Gen. Whiting (DefenseScoop).
So what: A new USSPACECOM commander will set space-control priorities that flow to the component.
Consider: Be aware of the confirmation timeline; Whiting is expected to retire by January 2027.
SPACECOMOrganization & peopleGPS
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command · 2026-10-02
U.S. Space Forces-Japan at Yokota AB has integrated Regional Space Advisors into its daily operations to deepen cooperation with Japan (USINDOPACOM).
So what: This is a working model for the combined space integration that SPACEPAC pursues with partners.
Consider: Consider reviewing the SPACEFOR-J RSA model for other SPACEPAC partner lines.
PACOMAllies & partners

Nothing significant this week: Orbital Warfare · Space Domain Awareness · PNT / Navwar · Electronic Warfare

Watch list

  • 5 Oct 0817Z: SDA T1 Transport Layer A (21 sats), Vandenberg; 7 Oct 0323Z: ROK Nuri with NeonSat-2 to 6.
  • 9 Oct 1925Z: LM-12 from Wenchang, payload unknown. 6 Oct 0302Z: 18 SDS CDM COSMOS 2160 vs DIADEME 2.
  • GPS forecast outages (NANU): PRN07 6 Oct 1630Z-7 Oct 0030Z; PRN05 and PRN12 from 8 Oct 1530Z.

Recommendations (for awareness)

  • Be aware DSP is retired; recommend reviewing MW sensor assumptions for the Korean Peninsula in current plans.
  • Consider requesting 18 SDS custody of the September Yaogan groups for theater counter-ISR planning.
  • Consider engaging SPACEFOR-J on its Regional Space Advisor model as a template for other partner lines.
UNCLASSIFIED · open-source reporting only · 5 sources · built 2026-10-04 05:57 HSTSpace Watch · 2026-W40 · page 2 of 2